FOREIGN OPINION. Malaysia's democracy is in worse shape than we thought
But the rally, smaller in number than hoped for and lacking a representative ethnic mix, served only to show that democracy in Malaysia is more troubled than many previously thought.
A splintered opposition failed to mobilise supporters on the scale hoped for and those who did turn up - and without a doubt, there were tens of thousands of them - were predominantly from the minority ethnic Chinese and Indian communities.
That these groups have legitimate concerns is a valid reason to protest. But to the large ethnic Malay support base of the beleaguered Prime Minister Najib Razak, this was a startling show of opposition towards the status quo and the rule of the Barisan Nasional coalition. This, of course, is exactly what Najib was hoping for.
Malay culture under threat?
The paucity of Malay protesters played directly into Najib's hands, strengthening his core Malay support base with a mass visual display claiming that ethnic Malay heritage and culture are under threat.
The prime minister, who was not in Kuala Lumpur during the protest, deemed the protesters "shallow and poor in their patriotism and love for their motherland". Malaysia's ethnic groups, and thus Malaysia itself, are looking more and more divided.
The timing of the rally, which was the fourth held by the Bersih civil society group that campaigns for free and fair elections, is also no coincidence.
On Monday, Malaysia will celebrate Merdeka Day, the annual celebration marking its independence from Britain in 1957.
For those taking part in the rally, this patriotic holiday is a chance to look back at the past and focus on what kind of Malaysia people want for the future. For the government that has been the sole holder of power since independence, however, patriotism means a chance to display their Malay identity and reinforce the nationalist narrative that surrounds independence celebrations.
Public dissatisfaction has been brewing in Malaysia for the past months as the economy slows and political scandals escalate.
The street protests come amid allegations of Najib's mismanagement of the debt-laden 1Malaysia Development fund (1MDB), a faltering economy with a plunging currency, and allegations of impropriety over a 2.6 billion Malaysian ringgit ($700m) "donation" deposited into Najib's personal bank accounts. Najib denies allegations that he used public money for personal gain.
Colourful symbol
In the lead-up to the protest, the government used almost every lever available to deter protesters. They ruled the rallies illegal, saying correct permissions had not been sought, banned internet sites that mentioned the protest, and even tried to ban the yellow shirts that were to become the colourful symbol of the protest.
These heavy-handed scare tactics may have served to keep some protesters away. But the rally's failure to mobilise a crowd representative of Malaysia's ethnic groups highlighted the widening religious and ethnic polarity in Malaysian politics, as well as the weakness of opposition groups plagued by infighting and disagreements over the place of religion in multiethnic Malaysia.
In the past, Bersih rallies could count on numbers mobilised by opposition parties for a good turnout. The Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), with one million members nationwide, is no longer part of the opposition after a fallout with former opposition allies, who represent mainly ethnic Chinese and Indian interests.
Perhaps the best result in the aftermath of the Bersih 4.0 rally is to instil in the ruling UMNO leadership a sense that the prime minister is no longer electable. But the UMNO party leadership conference, the forum that could vote him out as leader, has been delayed for 18 months.
Patronage politics
The other hope is in a vote of no confidence that could be moved by opposition politicians when parliament resumes in October. However, it seems unlikely that it will garner enough support.
Malaysia has shown repeatedly that the prime minister does not need the people's support to survive. Patronage politics is deeply ingrained, and the recent sackings of senior politicians are a stark reminder of what lies in store for those whose loyalty is questioned. For now, it seems Najib is likely to survive and lead his party into the next election.
Despite the show of force, with military hardware and armoured water cannon trucks lining the protest route, there was little violence and few arrests. Previous rallies saw street scuffles, the use of water cannon and tear gas along with hundreds of arrests.
Whether intentional or not, the Malaysian police have managed this rally with a light hand, perhaps driven by a belief that the protest is essentially harmless. After cracking down hard before the rally, the authorities seemed content to sit back, show the world that they can effectively manage public discontent - and then do nothing.
Democracy in Malaysia is the poorer for it.
